Buying Points Sports Betting

• Buying Points Sports Betting Websites
• Buying Points Sports Betting Odds

• Home Gambling The Meaning of Selling or Buying Points in Sports Betting. Gambling; The Meaning of Selling or Buying Points in Sports Betting. Gray Larch - January.
• A final point to mention here is that the exact rules of buying points, and the associated costs, can vary at different betting sites. Some sites limit the amount of points you can buy to one and a half points, while others allow you to buy more.

A statement repeated on betting forums often is “if buying
half-points were +EV the bookmaker wouldn’t sell them”. This
is just another football betting myth. In this article I’ll discuss buying
half-points for NFL football betting in great depth, touch on
college football, and teach you easy to follow
football betting strategy for buying half-points.

Buying Half Points Explained

You can buy points when you’re betting on basketball, but because it scores by one, two, and three points buying just a half-point can be more valuable than in football as it has more of an impact on the final score.

Most online betting sites (Bovada being the exception) allow
bettors to purchase half-points from a point spread starting at
10-cents each. So for example, if the point spread is -6.5 -110
you can purchase a half-point bringing it to -6.0 -120, or 2
half-points bringing it to -5.5 -130. If the point spread is
+4.5 -105 you can purchase to +5.0
-115 or +5.5 -125. Now there are some exceptions to this.

For good reason
3 points is the most common margin of victory in football,
purchasing across it either costs more or is restricted.
Generally speaking it costs 25 cents for buying on or off
the 3. So +2.5 to +3.0, +3.0 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3.0 and -3.0
to -2.5, those four half point moves cost 25 cents per half
point. At some sites this is true only for NFL football, and
not college football. For
example, BetOnline charges only 15 cents for those four
mentioned buys when the league is college football.

The
majority of online betting sites now charge 15 cents for
buying on or off the 7; specifically, +6.5 to +7.0, +7.0 to
+7.5, -7.5 to -7.0 and -7.0 to -6.5. A few sites charge
more, for example Pinnacle Sports most often charges 17
cents for half-point buys involving the 7. It should be
noted this is a rather new premium. I’ve found many local
bookies in the US still sell these for 10 cents each, but
online 15 cents or greater is standard.

The Value of Half Points

Finding the fair value of a
half-point purchase requires two things 1) a push chart and 2)
trivial mathematics. The table to the left is a push chart I
created for NFL football; I’ll discuss push charts briefly later
in this article. As far as the math goes we’ll need to first
calculate our implied probability using the formula
risk/return=implied probability, where return is stake+win. For
example: -110 is risk $110 to win $100; the return is $210 ($110
stake + $100 win). So for -110 the implied probability is
110/210=0.5238 or in other words 52.38%. This tells us at odds
-110 we need to win 52.38% of the time to break even.

Calculating the value of a half-point buy is now a matter of
simple mathematics, so long as we already have a push chart.
Considering we have one, let’s a take a look at the value of
moving a point spread from +6.5 -110 to +7.0. On the NFL push
chart I just provided you’ll see the favorite wins by 7 points
5.7% of the time. Now considering at +6.5 we lose on a -7
outcome, and now we push at -7 we’re going to take half the 5.7%
probability and add it to the 52.38% implied probability of
-110.

Why only half? If we were moving from +6.5 to +7.5 we would
take the full 5.7% value. However moving +6.5 to +7.0 we can
only take half because on that number we push not win. Our
opponent (the bookmaker) who has -7.0 also pushes. So half the
5.7% is in his -7.0 line, and half the 5.7% is in our line of
+7.0. The same would be true moving +7.0 to +7.5; we take half
the push probability of 7, because we’re going from a push on 7
to a win on 7. Our increase is half the probability. When
dealing with half points we’re always either moving off a push
(and therefore take half the probability of the number we move
off of) or onto a push (and therefore take half the probability
of the number we move on to).

So in this case of +6.5 to +7.0, half of 5.7% is 2.85%. We
add this 2.85% to the +6.5 -110 implied probability 52.38% to
get a new +7.0 implied probability of 55.23%. If you go to our
odds converter and plug 55.23% into the implied probability
field you’ll see in American odds this is -123. This tells us
moving +6.5 -110 to +7.0 is worth 13 cents. It also tells us
that +6.5 -110 and +7.0 -123 have the same expected value.

An Important Lesson

When moving -110 to -123 the line moved 13 cents. I want to
make it clear that cents are a meaningless evaluation figure. To
best illustrate why, please allow me to exaggerate the point. We just
showed that increasing a 52.38% probability 2.85% moves the
American line 13 cents. Let’s say however the line was +6.5
-280, which is risk $280 to win $100. Using Risk $280 / Return
$380 = Implied Probability we see the implied probability of
-280 is 73.68%. If we add 2.85% to this we get a new implied
probability of 76.53. Go to our odds converter, plug in 76.53%,
and you see this is American odds -326. So the same 2.85%
increase in this case moved -280 to -326, and therefore was worth
46 cents, not 13 cents.

The lesson I’m attempting to give is the value of half points
are progressive. If the line starts at -105 the value of a half
point is less than if it started at -110; if the line starts at
-115, then it’s worth more. Likewise, when making multiple-half point
purchases each half point purchased has greater value than the
last. If betting sites didn’t limit the number of half point we
could buy at 10 cents each, we could purchase a ton of them to
the point all bets we make are +EV. I’ll come back to +EV
half-point buys in a bit, but first let me cover the best betting
sites for purchasing half points.

Best Betting Sites for Half Point Purchases

For the most part any betting website selling half-points at
25-cents for point spreads involving +3/-3, 15-cents for point
spreads involving +7/-7 and 10 cents for all other point spreads
is ideal. However, there are small little intricacies that make
some sites more ideal than others.

BetOnline.com – While many online betting sites only allow
bettors to purchase two or three half points at 10-cents each,
BetOnline actually allows punters to purchase four. Remember the
lesson earlier, because the value of half points is progressive
each one you purchase is worth more than the last. So the fact
that they sell four for 10 cents can be a huge plus. They also only
charge 15-cents (instead of 25 cents) on college football point
spreads involving +3/-3, and also don’t charge a premium on the
+7/-7 for college football either, offering 10 cents instead of
the 15 cents many other sites charge.

JustBet.com – Although not as ideal as BetOnline, JustBet is
decent for half point purchases. Here you can purchase
3-half-points maximum at 10 cents each, and they charge just 20
cents for the three on college football.

TopBet.com – Topbet ranks #1 on our list of
sports betting bonuses, but when it comes to half point buys
here you’ll want to stick to only purchasing a maximum of 2
half-points or buying 5 or 6. This is because at TopBet the first
two cost 10 cents each and the remainder cost 15 cents each.
This makes buying 3 or 4 poor value, but buying 5 or 6 will
often offset the loss in value.

5Dimes.com – 5Dimes is the nuts when it comes to half point
buys. This is because they price half points unique depending on
which point spread you’re crossing. They also allow bettors to
purchase them unmatched in the industry 10-20 half-points per
game. They are a reduced juice sportsbook, and you’ll
quite often find the best value here.

I should note that while we love them for their great odds on
football teasers, Bovada.lv isn’t a good site for buying
half points. This is because very rarely do they even offer the
option, and when they do it’s only on low value numbers such as
buying +8.5 in NFL to +9. If you use them for other reasons,
just avoid their half point buys.

Buying Half Point Strategy

I’ve already covered how buying half-point works and how to
calculate their value, but I haven’t discussed push charts. It’s
worth noting that season to season NFL push charts don’t change very
much and mine was last calculated going into the 2012/13 season,
so it should be good for at least a few years. When dealing with
college football you have two options #1 create a push chart, or
#2 remove vig from Pinnacle Sports.

For this you’re going to
need a massive amount of historical data. One option to obtain
this is by purchasing access to ATSdatabase.com for $49.00 for one
month or $99.00 for a year. I personally don’t find their
service worth much and some of their data needs cleansing so
paying $49.00 for one-month, followed by ripping all the data and
putting it into your own excel spread sheets is probably best.
From here what you’ll need to do is find all similar games
(paying attention to their over/under betting total as well as point spread), and then
see how often they won by the related numbers. So, you might
make push charts for totals under 44, totals 44.5 to 55.5, and
totals over 56. From here you can take all points spreads +1.5 to -1.5
of the number you’re looking to calculate for, and see how often
they won by that number.

This is a far better
option. If you’re from the US just register a fake account at
pinnaclesports.com, because they don’t accept US bettors; having
an account gives you access to their dynamic lines. At Pinnacle
the option to both buy points and sell points is available, and
Pinnacle is a very sharp reduced juice betting site. Here you
can change the point spread to any increment and then use the
remove vig calculator contained in the lower section of my
article on
handicapping the betting market. So for example, on a
betting line of -7 we first calculate their no vig -7/+7 price.
We then calculate their no vig price on +6.5 and -6.5, and then
on +7.5/-7.5. Here we can note the changes of what they’re willing
to let us buy and sell points at to see how much chance they’re
giving the seven pushing.

Proof Buying Half Points Can be +EV

Let’s take case of a point spread that’s +9.5 -110. As
already covered earlier in this article the implied probability
of -110 is 52.38%. I also provided a push chart that showed
-10/+10 pushes about 4.9% of the time. If we decided to purchase
two half points bringing the line to +10.5, our implied
probability is 52.38%+4.9%=57.28%. If we plug this new
percentage into our
odds converter we see in American odds format this is -134.
If the bookmaker was charging the fair price for +9.5 to +10.5
he’d charge us -134, yet every betting site I know of sells
half points moving from +9.5 to +10.5 which costs just -130. If we
already thought +9.5 -110 was a neutral or better value bet,
we’d be foolish not to purchase two-half points here because doing
so lowers the bookmaker’s advantage.

Now considering 14 also has a 4.9% probability we can now
determine the following 4-half point buys are always must
purchases.

1. When betting +9.5 -110 always buy to +10.5 -130
2. When betting -10.5 -110 always buy to -9.5 -130
3. When betting +13.5 -110 always buy to +14.5 -130
4. When betting -14.5 -110 always buy to -13.5 -130

Although these are the best half point buys there are others.
Let’s take the example of a point spread +6 -115. The implied
probability of -115 is 53.49%. If we were to buy this to +7.5 we
would take half the probability of 6 which is 3.4%/2=1.7% and
the full probability of 7 which is 5.7%. So, 53.49%+1.7%+5.7%=
60.89%. Using our odds converter we can see that 60.89% is -155.6 in American
odds format. At betting sites the move +6.0 to +6.5 would cost
10 cents where the next two cost 15 cents each, because they
involve the seven. So, 110+10+15+15=150; the betting site is
giving us -150 when we just calculate the fair price for the
extra points should have been -155.6.

To conclude, let me mention there’s still vig in the initial
lines of all these examples. However, in these spots buying half
points did lower the bookmaker advantage. If the lines was
already a +EV bet we made it better. Perhaps if it was slightly
-EV and we were on the fence we could make it +EV with the half
point purchase. The reason these numbers work is because I’m
dealing with common margins of victory and also purchasing
multiple half points (which remember each one you purchase has a
higher value than the last). You’ll want to avoid low value
numbers. When it comes to half-point buying, our target numbers
of 7, 10, 14, 17, and 21. If we can use multiple half points to
cross these numbers more times than not we’re increasing the
value of our wager.

This concludes my article on buying half-points in football.
If you’ve read this article in full, understand it, and are
interested in buying half points for value I suggest also
reading the following articles:

If you place wagers on US sports, then chances are high that you’ve heard of point spreads. Here’s how they work; if a game has Patriots -9.0 and Vikings +9.0, the Patriots are 9.0 point favorites and the Vikings are 9.0 point underdogs. Unless otherwise stated, no matter which team you bet on, you’ll be required to risk $1.10 for each $1.00 you want to win. For Patriots bettors to prevail, they need their team to win by 10 or more points. A 9-point Patriot victory would be a push (a tie). For Vikings bettors to take home the victory, they need to either win the game or lose by less than 9 points.

Point spreads are used since most recreational bettors prefer to wager even money propositions. In the above example, if there was no point spread, only moneyline betting would exist. So, if odds makers are giving the New England Patriots a 73% chance of winning a game, then in order to take bets and still have a small profit margin, the bookmaker would have no choice but to require Patriot bettors to stake $3.00 or more for each $1.00 they want to win.

With a point spread, the odds are balanced, so you usually have to risk just $1.10 to win $1.00. This makes the point spreads appealing to recreational bettors, who often think it’s easy to make money from them. We have to be honest with you; it’s NOT easy, but it IS possible. The strategy we cover in this article should help!

We’ve provided a brief explanation of point spreads in our introduction here, but if you’d like to know more about this type of wager then please read our beginner’s guide to betting point spreads.

Simple Tips for Point Spread Betting

Strategy for betting point spreads is obviously different for each sport and league, but these four tips are general enough to apply to them all.

• Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
• Use Multiple Betting Sites
• Be Careful of Road Favorites
• Understand Key Numbers

Let’s go over each of these tips in a little more detail.

Take Advantage of Bonus Offers

One way to make money from sports betting is to open an account at an online betting site and take advantage of their sign up bonus. This gives you extra money to wager with, and since point spreads are so straightforward, it can be relatively easy to meet the associated wagering requirements and still come out ahead. Repeating this process at multiple betting sites will maximize your potential returns! We just ask that you please stick with reputable sites, like any of the ones that we recommend.

Use Multiple Betting Sites

We already mentioned how using multiple betting sites allows you to take advantage of multiple bonus offers. That’s not the only benefit either. Since point spreads vary between sites, one of the best ways to beat these wagers is to compare the different spreads in order to find which one is the most favorable. This doesn’t take nearly as long as you might think, and it will make a huge difference to your bottom line over time.

Let’s take a hypothetical game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots as an example. One site might have the spread as follows.

Another site might offer a slightly different spread.

If you’re betting in favor of the Patriots, then you should be betting with Bookmaker A. If the Patriots win by more than seven points, then you’ll win with either bookmaker. However, if they win by exactly seven points, you’ll lose with Bookmaker B. With Bookmaker A, you’ll push and get your stake returned.

On the other hand, if you’re betting on the Bills, then Bookmaker B will be your best option. A Bills loss of exactly seven points would be a push at Bookmaker A, but it would be a win for you at Bookmaker B.

It’s only a half-point difference, and that might not seem like a lot. The bookmakers tend to be very accurate with their spreads though, and an extra half-point in your favor can easily add up to extra profits over time.

Be Careful of Road Favorites

Many novice bettors fail to understand the impact of home advantage when wagering on sport events. When looking at the board for potential wagers, these bettors tend to get excited and bet on lots of superior teams favored on the road against weaker opponents. The betting market is so much more advanced than this, and for the most part point spreads are always going to be 50/50 propositions.

We’re not saying that you should never bet on road favorites. Just make sure that you have good reasons to do so. Keep in mind; they don’t just need to win, they need to win by a greater margin than the spread suggests they will.

Understand Key Numbers

While understanding key numbers is beneficial for betting point spreads on any sport, key numbers are known for having the most significance in football. In NFL football, most games are decided by three or seven points. Therefore, when shopping the odds, the difference between -7.0 and -6.5 is far greater than the difference between -5.5 and -5.0.

With some betting sites odds, certain games are priced differently than risking $1.10 to win $1.00 (which is called -110 odds). For example, you might see the Giants priced at -105 and +7 in a game against the Jets. Now, you only have to risk $1.05 to win $1.00. This is obviously better odds, but it’s very likely that they will lose by exactly seven to give you a push. Taking -110 and +7.5 with an alternative bookmaker is actually the better bet.

Getting your head around these kind of intricacies, as well as knowing the relevant key numbers, is vital if you want to bet on the point spreads successfully.

Now that we’ve got the basic tips covered, we want to provide you with some point spread betting tips specific to two of the most popular US sports: football and basketball.

Point Spread Betting in Football

One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let’s say you’re interested in betting on the following.

A teaser would give you a single wager with the following spreads.

Each selection is obviously easier to get right with the spread moved in your favor, but you do have to get all three correct in order for your wager to win.

If you want to learn how to beat this form of wagering, you’ll definitely want to read our article on betting football teasers.

Another way to beat football point spreads is to shop for off market prices. For example, let’s say you’re shopping online betting sites and see every site is offering Vikings +7.0. Then, you stumble upon one site that’s offering +7.5. There’s a good chance that this is a +EV wager, simply because it is out of sync with every other site. Please note that this strategy isn’t quite the same as simply shopping for the best lines. Here, you’re specifically looking for wagers that are +EV because they’re against the market.

It’s also important to consider whether or not there’s any correlation between the point spread and the betting total. If they are, a parlay wager is a good way to get maximum value. For example, a college football point spread +24.5 parlayed with under 48 points in the same game might be a great parlay bet. If the +24.5 team covers the point spread, then there’s an increased chance that the game also goes under the posted total of 48.

Finally, you might want to think about learning the correct strategies for buying half-points in football. While many people are against this method, we’re here to tell you that there are some circumstances where buying points can be profitable.

Point Spread Betting in Basketball

Buying half points is a strategy that can work for basketball too. Most online betting sites offer bettors the ability to purchase half-points at 10 cents each. Let’s say the Lakers are -6.5 at odds of -110 for example. Here of some of the options you can expect to see.

Buying Points Sports Betting Websites

A great strategy for betting basketball point spreads is to shop dozens of betting sites for the best line, and then purchase as many half points as possible (provided they are priced 10 cents each).

Buying Points Sports Betting Odds

When using this strategy, it’s helpful to know the most common margins of victory in NBA basketball and how often they occur.

This information shows us that nearly half the games finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn’t the result of variance. Some margins of victory occur more frequently than others because of end game strategy. The winning team is often found running the clock, while the losing team if often found intentionally fouling.

The key here is to target the point spread five and seven, because these are virtually tied as the most common margins of victory. It’s important to recognize that most betting sites are only willing to sell 2 or 3 half points for 10 cents each, after which point they start charging more. Some sites sell up to four half points at this price though.

To show how this can be exploited, take a point spread of -8.5 at odds of -110. This is a 50/50 proposition. Let’s assume you’ve purchased enough points to move the spread to -6.5 at odds of -150. Now, you’d win instead of lose 6.24% of the time they win by 8, and 6.59% of the time they win by 7. Add these together with the 50% from the original proposition, and we get 62.83%.

Go to our odds converter, and you’ll see that the implied probability of -150 is 60%. This means you need to win 60% of the time to break even. However, our handicapping shows the actual probability of winning is 62.38%.

If we risked $150 to win $100 on this -150 line, 62.38% of the time we would win $100. And 37.62% of the time we would lose $150. This gives us an expected profit of $5.95 for every $150 risked.

If you only make large +EV bets such as the basketball example above, betting sites will limit the amount you’re allowed to wager. It’s not uncommon for online bookmakers to spot a skilled bettor and say, “Okay you can keep wagering here, but the maximum you’re allowed to bet per game is $500.00.”
If you keep betting and winning, they might decrease your limits even further. That’s why we recommend trying to hide the fact that you’re so sharp. By placing some random wagers and occasionally spending some time at their casino, you’ll have a much better chance of staying under the radar.
This is also another good reason for using multiple sites. Since there are so many different reputable betting sites to choose from, it would take you a long time to get limited at every single one of them.